中国科技公司豪赌印度 现在却被印度关在门外

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中国科技公司豪赌印度,现在却被印度关在门外 | 双语阅读

来源:财经十一人

两国关系的紧张让双方的科技公司都受到了损失,但中国公司的赌注更大

文| Sherisse Pham

Tiktok risks losing one of its biggest markets

Tiktok正面临丢失最大市场的风险

India and China's fast-growing tech sectors have been caught in the crossfire of an intense geopolitical standoff this year. While both will suffer from the showdown, Chinese tech companies have more to lose.

印度和中国之间地缘政治的僵局殃及了两国快速增长的科技领域。尽管双方都会蒙受一些损失,但中国科技巨头们有可能输掉的赌注更多。

Tensions between the two countries have been rising since June, when they engaged in their worst conflict in decades: a bloody clash along a disputed border in the Himalayas that left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead. In the following weeks and months, Indian officials banned apps from Chinese tech giants Bytedance, Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (TCEHY), and reportedly restricted embattled telecommunications equipment maker Huawei from participating in India's 5G network.

两国间的紧张情绪从六月的那场数十年来最严重的冲突开始发酵:在喜马拉雅山脉的一段边界上,双方发生了暴力冲突,至少20名印度士兵丧生。接下来的数周乃至数月的时间里,印度官员先后封禁了字节跳动、阿里巴巴和腾讯等中国科技巨头们的手机应用,并据传说还将禁止本就处境不妙的华为参与印度的5G网络建设。

Both countries agreed to deescalate military tensions in September, but that hasn't brought much relief for businesses caught in the dispute. ByteDance's marquee international app, the short-form video platform Tiktok, is still banned in India. And last month, the Indian government banned dozens more Chinese apps, citing national security concerns.

双方在九月就缓和军事对峙状态达成了共识,但这却没有为处于风暴眼中的企业们释放多少压力。字节跳动的全球热门短视频应用Tiktok在印度仍处于被封禁状态。就在上个月,印度政府又以国家安全为由封禁了数十个中国应用。

The pressures are a problem for companies based in both countries, but the pain is particularly acute for Chinese companies trying to grab a piece of India's explosive internet growth. India is now home to nearly 750 million internet users, more than double the number in 2016, according to the latest government data. Atlas VPN, a market research firm, estimates India will have 1 billion internet users by 2025.

对于双方的公司来说,这些压力都是问题,但对于想要从印度爆发的互联网市场中取得一席之地的中国企业们来说,问题却尤为棘手。印度现在有着7.5亿网民,是2016年的两倍之多。市场研究公司Atlas VPN预测在2025年之前,印度将会拥有10亿网络用户。

Locked out of that market, Chinese companies "stand to lose riding the ascent of possibly the world's third-largest economy by 2050 and the market with the world's second-largest internet users," said Shirley Yu, visiting fellow at the London School of Economics and founder of a company that assesses strategy, business, and political risk for companies working in China.

被印度市场拒之门外的中国公司们"面临着失去这个有可能在2050年成为世界第三大经济体以及拥有世界上第二大网络用户的市场的风险," Shirley Yu,伦敦政经大学的一位访问学者说。她也是一家为那些在中国的企业们评估政策、商业和政治风险的公司的创始人。

They can 'do nothing

他们“无计可施”

Several Chinese tech companies are already feeling the loss.

几家中国科技公司们已经感受到了损失。

ByteDance's Tiktok lost 200 million Indian users when it was banned in late June. That's twice as many users as the app has in the United States. The Beijing-based company hadn't yet made money on Tiktok in India, according to Greg Paull, principal at market research firm R3. But the company had spent heavily on establishing and expanding its slice of the market.

字节跳动的Tiktok已经在六月下旬被禁止的时候失去了2亿印度用户,这是其在美国拥有的用户数的两倍。市场调研公司R3的总裁Greg Paull表示,总部位于北京的字节跳动还没有通过Tiktok在印度市场上挣到钱。但是,这家公司为了在这片市场上进行扩张,已经付出重金。

"And now they can only watch the local, copy version apps taking over their users and do nothing," said Paull.

“而如今他们只能眼睁睁的看着那些本地的、复制他们模式的APP们夺走他们的用户而无计可施,”Paul说到。

Google (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai said in a blog post earlier this year that the company's efforts in India "have deepened our understanding of how technology can be helpful to all different types of people."

谷歌的CEO Sundar Pichai在年初的一篇博客里说到,谷歌在印度所付出的努力“使得我们对于科技能够如何帮助到不同类型的人们有了更深入的理解。”

"Building products for India first has helped us build better products for users everywhere," he wrote.

“先为印度设计产品可以帮助我们为其他所有地方的用户设计更好的产品,"他写到。

For internet applications developed by Google and other tech companies, data is like oxygen, said Gateway House director and board member Blaise Fernandes.

Blaise Fernandes是Gateway House的总监和董事会成员,他认为对于谷歌和其他科技企业开发的互联网应用来说,数据就像是氧气一样。

Apps need a lot of up-to-date data to keep algorithms competitive, according to Fernandes. He predicts that the deprivation of data from India will handicap Chinese apps' development for global markets.

APP们需要许多的最新数据以保持算法的竞争力,Fernandes说到。他预测,得不到印度市场的数据将妨碍中国的APP们开发国际市场。

"The global strategies of Chinese tech firms are now being hijacked," said Abishur Prakash, a geopolitical futurist and co-founder of Center for Innovating the Future, a consulting firm that works on technology and geopolitics.

“中国科技公司的国际化战略现在被劫持了,” Abishur Prakash,一位地缘政治的未来学家对媒体表示。他也是科技和地缘政治学的咨询公司Center for Innovating the Future的联合创始人。

Chinese companies that had relied on India to build and test new products have seen those plans thrown into jeopardy, he said.

中国公司们曾经依赖印度市场来制造并且测试新产品,现在他们的计划却处于危险边缘,他说。

"As India pushes out Chinese tech, a chaotic business landscape is emerging. Now, everything that Chinese tech firms have bet on to succeed in the Indian market is being picked apart," Prakash said.

“当印度把中国科技公司们排挤在外,一个混乱的商业图景正在慢慢显现出来。现在,中国科技公司在印度市场上所做的任何想要带来成功的努力都受到了吹毛求疵的指摘,”Prakash说。

Investments in valuable Indian start-ups at risk

对印度初创企业的投资也面临着风险

Beyond developing their own products, Chinese tech companies had been investing heavily in India's tech startups, pouring some $4 billion into the sector since 2015, according to Gateway House.

除了开发自己的产品以外,中国科技企业们也重金投资了许多印度的科技初创公司。据Gateway House给出的数据表明,他们从2015年开始已经在这个市场倾注了40亿美元。

But India's tightening rules on foreign investment could constrain China's ability to cash in on the country's internet boom.

但印度正在收紧外来投资的政策很可能会制约中国在印度的互联网发展中捞金的能力。

In April, the Indian government signaled it was taking steps to curb China's growing influence. It announced that foreign direct investments from countries that share a land border with India would be subject to more scrutiny.

就在四月,印度政府发出了将会限制中国影响力进一步壮大的信号。印度政府声明,来自与印度边境接壤的国家的直接投资会收到更严格的监管。

The move was "indicative of India's desire to carefully control the inward flow of Chinese investments and assets into the country," according to Sukanti Ghosh, South Asia head for the Washington-based think tank Albright Stonebridge Group.

位于华盛顿的智库Albright Stonebridge Group的南亚区负责人Sukanti Ghosh认为,这一举措是“表明了印度严格管控中国流入的投资和资产的意图。”

Then, amid the border clashes in June, the otherwise investor-friendly government of Maharashtra, a western state in India, paused or canceled a number of agreements signed with leading Chinese companies earlier this year, Ghosh said.

之后,在双方陷入边境纠纷的六月,印度西部对投资者一向友好的马哈拉施特拉邦暂停或结束了今年早些时候与中国企业们签署的一系列协议,Ghosh说到。

Questions have already been raised about the long-term viability of at least one splashy tech investment.

至少已经有一桩引人瞩目的投资的长期可持续性遭受了质疑。

Reuters, citing four people with direct knowledge of the matter, reported last week that Alibaba affiliate Ant Group was thinking about selling its 30% stake in One97, the parent company of popular digital wallet Paytm, because of the rising tensions and tougher competitive landscape.

路透社引用四名直接相关人的说法称,阿里巴巴旗下的蚂蚁集团上周正在考虑将其在One97所持有的30%股权售卖出去。这家公司是非常受欢迎的数字支付公司Paytm的母公司,而出售的原因就是因为两国之间越来越紧张和充满竞争的关系。

Both companies denied the report. Ant said in a tweet that the Reuters story is "untrue." Paytm said in a statement that the story is false and misleading.

两家公司都对报道的内容矢口否认。蚂蚁在一条推特中表示路透社的报道“不实。” Paytm则表示这个故事是错误的并且具有误导性。

"There has been no discussion with any of our major shareholders ever, nor any plans, about selling their stake or becoming the controlling shareholder," a Paytm spokesperson said.

Paytm发言人称:“我们的主要股东之间从没有讨论或者产生过任何关于受让或成为控股股东的计划。”

India could suffer, too

印度同样有损失

When it comes to digital payments and financial technology, Ant is widely considered to be a global leader. And if Ant and other Chinese tech companies disengage because of political tensions, India could miss out on leading edge technology.

在数字支付和金融科技领域,蚂蚁被广泛视为国际领袖企业。如果蚂蚁和其他中国的科技企业们由于政治原因不再参与印度市场的事务,印度可能会错失领先全球的科技与技术。

"In the short term, India will lose out. Tencent is the biggest 'strategic investor' in India's startup world. Meanwhile, Xiaomi invested almost $500 million in India — in a single year," said Prakash.

Prakash说到:“短期来看,印度是会吃亏的。腾讯是印度创业市场中“最大的战略投资人”。而小米则仅在一年的时间内就投资了近乎5亿美元。”

"Clearly, Chinese tech firms are pumping huge amounts of cash into India's economy," he added.

“很明显,中国科技企业们正在为印度经济注入巨量的现金,”他补充到。”

Smartphone maker Xiaomi invested heavily to build factories in India, and has so far generated employment for some 50,000 Indians, according to local reports. The anti-China sentiment in the country and calls to boycott Chinese products could put those jobs at risk.

根据当地的报道,智能手机制造商小米在印度投入了许多资金以建立工厂,截至目前已经为5万印度人创造了就业机会。而印度国内产生的反华情绪和抵制中国产品的运动很可能将这些工作机会置于风险之中。

Fernandes, of Gateway House, said that other tech companies are already rushing in to fill the void left by Chinese investors, and predicts that India will not suffer for long.

Gateway House的Fernandes表示,其他科技公司已经开始涌入中国投资人们撤离出的空白区域,并且预测印度不会长期受损。

"Post the ban on Chinese apps it is estimated that $25 billion [of foreign direct investment] has found its way to the Digital India story, so in no way" is India losing out, he said.

“在中国的APP们被封之后,估计有250亿美元的海外直接投资进入到了印度的数字领域,因此没道理说印度会最终成为输家, ”他表示。

Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani's digital company Jio Platforms may have accounted for much of that. It alone has secured more than $20 billion from marquee investors, including Google (GOOGL GOOGLE), Facebook (FB) and KKR, this year.

印度的亿万富豪Mukesh Ambani的数字企业Jio Platforms吸引了大量的海外投资。今年这家公司从各路明星投资人手里拿到了200亿美元的资金,这些投资人们包括谷歌,Facebook (FB) 和 KKR。

Achieving digital sovereignty

获取数字主权

For the world's two most populous countries, there appears to be no resolution in sight.

India's Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar suggested it could take years for negotiations between China and India to reach their conclusion given the unprecedented build-up of military forces on both sides of the border.

这两个世界上人口最多的国家似乎还没有找到解决争端的办法。印度外交部长Subrahmanyam Jaishanka表示,就目前双方在边境的军队竞赛的空前规模而言,中印双方可能需要持续数年的谈判才能达成有效共识。

Progress in relations with China requires peace and tranquility along the countries' shared border, Jaishankar told a local newspaper last week. If that's disturbed, as has been the case this year, then obviously, the rest of the relationship cannot be unaffected, he added.

与中国的关系进展有赖于边境的和平与安宁,Jaishankar上周对一家当地报刊说到。一旦边境的安宁和平像今年一样遭到破坏,其他所有的关系都不可能不受影响。

"While India may be going after Chinese tech firms, it is not going after anyone else ... [and] still remains open to the world," Prakash said. "With that said, the one area where New Delhi and Beijing are on the same page is that both nations want to define tech on their own terms," he added.

“尽管印度在遏制中国的科技公司们,但却没有对其他国家的公司采取手段……印度仍然对世界敞开着怀抱,”Prakash说到。“也就是说,中印两国的共同点是他们都想要由自己来定义自己的科技领域,”他追加到。

"For these two nations, controlling tech is equal to sovereignty."

“对于这两个国家来说,掌控科技领域相当于掌控自己的主权。”

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